Trump Approval Ratings

Original Image

The image below was published in FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Data Preparation

Below is the accompanying code to reproduce the chart above. The data was download from the link referred above.

library(dplyr)
library(ggthemes)
library(tidyr)
library(ggplot2)
library(grid)
library(gridExtra)

approval_polllist <- readr::read_csv("./data/approval_polllist.csv") %>% 
  mutate(
    modeldate   = as.Date(x = modeldate,  format = "%m/%d/%Y"),
    startdate   = as.Date(x = startdate,  format = "%m/%d/%Y"),
    enddate     = as.Date(x = enddate,    format = "%m/%d/%Y"),
    createddate = as.Date(x = createddate,format = "%m/%d/%Y")
  ) %>% dplyr::filter(subgroup == "All polls")
  

approval_topline <- readr::read_csv("./data/approval_topline.csv") %>% 
  mutate(
    modeldate   = as.Date(x = modeldate,  format = "%m/%d/%Y"),
    timestamp   = substr(timestamp, 11, nchar(timestamp)) %>% as.Date(format = "%d %b %Y")
  ) %>% dplyr::filter(subgroup == "All polls")

data_for_plot <- tidyr::pivot_longer(
  data = approval_topline, 
  cols = c("approve_estimate","disapprove_estimate"), 
  names_to = "estimate_type", 
  values_to = "approval_rating"
)

data_for_plot2 <- tidyr::pivot_longer(
  data = approval_polllist, 
  cols = c("approve","disapprove"), 
  names_to = "approval_type", 
  values_to = "approval_rating"
)

GGPLOT2

ggplot(data = data_for_plot, aes( x = modeldate , y = round(x = approval_rating, digits = 1))) +
  geom_line(aes(color = estimate_type, group = estimate_type), size = 1.5) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(x = modeldate, ymin = approve_lo, ymax=approve_hi), fill="#009F29", alpha=0.2) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(x = modeldate, ymin = disapprove_lo, ymax=disapprove_hi), fill="#FF7400", alpha=0.2) +
  theme_fivethirtyeight() +
  labs(title = "Approval Ratings Donald Trump (All polls)") +
  scale_x_date(
    breaks = seq(as.Date("2017-01-01"), as.Date("2019-10-01"), by = "quarter"), 
    labels = paste(c("JAN.","APRIL","JULY","OCT."),rep(2017:2019,each=4)) %>% 
      ifelse(!grepl("JAN",.),sub("\\s\\d{4}","",.),.) %>% 
      gsub(pattern = "JAN. 2017", replacement = "JAN. 23, 2017", x = .)
  ) +
  coord_cartesian(
    xlim = c(min(data_for_plot$modeldate)-10,max(data_for_plot$modeldate)),
    ylim = c(18, 82),
    expand = FALSE,   # for clipping beyond max date
    clip = 'off'
  ) + 
  scale_y_continuous(
    limits = c(0, 100),
    breaks = seq(from = 20, to = 80, by = 10), 
    labels = paste0(seq(from = 20, to = 80, by = 10), "%")
  ) + 
  theme(
    axis.text.x = element_text(size = 10, color = "grey"),
    legend.position   = "none",
    panel.background  = element_rect(fill = "white"),
    plot.background   = element_rect(fill = "white"),
    plot.margin = unit(c(1,8,1,1), "lines")
  ) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = max(data_for_plot$modeldate), linetype="dotted") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = min(data_for_plot$modeldate), color = "grey") +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 50, color = "black", size = 0.5) + # thicker h line
  annotate(
    geom = "text", x = max(data_for_plot$modeldate), y = 83, 
    label = "DAY 1,022", colour = "lightgrey"
  ) +
  annotate(
    geom = "text", x = max(data_for_plot$modeldate) + 30, y = 54.3, 
    label = "54.3%", colour = "#FF7400", size = 5
  ) +
  annotate(
    geom = "text", x = max(data_for_plot$modeldate) + 60, y = 54.3, 
    label = "Disapprove", colour = "black", size = 3, hjust = 0
  ) +
  annotate(
    geom = "text", x = max(data_for_plot$modeldate) + 30, y = 41.4, 
    label = "41.4%", colour = "#009F29", size = 5
  ) +
  annotate(
    geom = "text", x = max(data_for_plot$modeldate) + 60, y = 41.4, 
    label = "Approve", colour = "black", size = 3, hjust = 0
  ) +
  annotate(
    geom = "text", x = min(data_for_plot$modeldate)-55, y = 16, 
    label = "JAN. 23, 2017", colour = "grey", size = 3.8, hjust = 0
  ) +
  geom_point(data = data_for_plot2, aes( x = startdate, y = approval_rating, fill = approval_type, color = approval_type), alpha = 0.2, shape = 16) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("#009F29", "#009F29", "#FF7400", "#FF7400"))